Uncategorized May 4, 2018

Highland Drive- Queen Anne

400 Highland Drive Seattle, WA 98109

Listed at: $1,800,000

To be perched high off a coveted street, to see all there is to see and enjoy a true sense of privacy; is the ultimate luxury. Be captivated by views of Lake Union to the Sound, with downtown cityscape and the Space Needle in between. This home has them all. Period touches throughout include the tall coved ceilings, Batchelder fireplace, original wood floors, period lighting and door hardware A legal mother-in-law to rent or for your house guests. Front patio as well as back landscaping are fab!

Virtual Tour: https://vimeo.com/evanparker/review/268046485/62a6a2592b

Listing Details: https://www.windermere.com/listing/WA/Seattle/400-Highland-Dr-98109/78749250

Uncategorized May 1, 2018

“Short of a war or stock market crash…”

“Short of a war or stock market crash…”

This month, Arch Mortgage Insurance released their spring Housing and Mortgage Market Review. The report explained that an increase in mortgage rates and/or home prices would impact monthly payments this way:

  • A 5% increase in home prices increases payments by roughly 5%
  • A 1% rise in interest rates increases payments by roughly 13% or 14%

That begs the question…

What if both rates and prices increase as predicted?

The report revealed:

“If interest rates and home prices rise by year-end in the ballpark of what most analysts are forecasting, monthly mortgage payments on a new home purchase could increase another 10–15%. That would make 2018 one of the worst full-year deteriorations in affordability for the past 25 years.”

The percent increase in mortgage payments would negatively impact affordability. But, how would affordability then compare to historic norms?

Per the report:

“For the U.S. overall, even if affordability were to deteriorate as forecasted, affordability would still be reasonable by historic norms. That is because the percentage of pre-tax income needed to buy a typical home in 2019 would still be similar to the historical average during 1987–2004. Thus, nationally at least, even with higher rates and home prices, affordability will just revert to historical norms.”

What about home prices?

A decrease in affordability will cause some concern about home values. Won’t an increase in mortgage payments negatively impact the housing market? The report addressed this question:

“Even recent interest rate increases and higher taxes on some upper-income earners didn’t slow the market, as many had feared…Short of a war or stock market crash, housing markets could continue to surprise on the upside over the next few years.”

To this point, Arch Mortgage Insurance also revealed their Risk Index which estimates the probability of home prices being lower in two years. The index is based on factors such as regional unemployment rates, affordability, net migration, housing starts and the percentage of delinquent mortgages.

Below is a map depicting their projections (the darker the blue, the lower the probability of a price decrease):

Bottom Line

If interest rates and prices continue to rise as projected, the monthly mortgage payment on a home purchased a year from now will be dramatically more expensive than it would be today.

Uncategorized April 27, 2018

Quarter 1 Gardner Report

The following analysis of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

The Washington State economy added 96,900 new jobs over the past 12 months, representing an annual growth rate of 2.9%—still solidly above the national rate of 1.5%. Most of the employment gains were in the private sector, which rose by 3.4%. The public sector saw a more modest increase of 1.6%.

The strongest growth was in the Education & Health Services and Retail sectors, which added 17,300 and 16,700 jobs, respectively. The Construction sector added 10,900 new positions over the past 12 months.

Even with solid increases in jobs, the state unemployment rate held steady at 4.7%—a figure that has not moved since September of last year.

I expect the Washington State economy to continue adding jobs in 2018, but not at the same rate as last year given that we are nearing full employment. That said, we will still outperform the nation as a whole when it comes to job creation.

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

  • There were 14,961 home sales during the first quarter of 2018. This is a drop of 5.4% over the same period in 2017.
  • Clallam County saw sales rise the fastest relative to the first quarter of 2017, with an increase of 16.5%. In most of the other markets, the lack of available homes for sale slowed the number of closings during this period.
  • Listing inventory in the quarter was down by 17.6% when compared to the first quarter of 2017, but pending home sales rose by 2.6% over the same period, suggesting that closings in the second quarter should be fairly robust.
  • The takeaway from this data is that the lack of supply continues to put a damper on sales. I also believe that the rise in interest rates in the finalquarter of 2017 likely pulled sales forward, leading to a drop in sales in the first quarter of 2018.

 

HOME PRICES

  • With ongoing limited inventory, it’s not surprising that the growth in home prices continues to trend well above the long-term average. Year-over-year, average prices rose 14.4% to $468,312.
  • Economic vitality in the region is leading to robust housing demand that far exceeds supply. Given the relative lack of new construction homes— something that is unlikely to change any time soon—there will continue to be pressure on the resale market. As a result, home prices will continue to rise at above-average rates in the coming year.
  • When compared to the same period a year ago, price growth was strongest in Grays Harbor County at 27.5%. Ten additional counties experienced double-digit price growth.
  • Mortgage rates continued to rise during first quarter, and are expected to increase modestly in the coming months. By the end of the year, interest rates will likely land around 4.9%, which should take some of the steam out of price growth. This is actually a good thing and should help address the challenges we face with housing affordability—especially in markets near the major job centers.

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home dropped by seven days when compared to the same quarter of 2017.
  • King County continues to be the tightest market in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of 24 days to sell. Every county in the region saw the length of time it took to sell a home either drop or remain essentially static relative to the same period a year ago.
  • In looking at the entire region, it took an average of 61 days to sell a home in the first quarter of this year. This is down from 68 days in the firstquarter of 2017 but up by eleven days when compared to the fourth quarter of 2017.
  • Anyone expecting to see a rapid rise in the number of homes for sale in 2018 will likely be disappointed. New construction permit activity—a leading indicator—remains well below historic levels and this will continue to put increasing pressure on the resale home market.

 

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors. For the first quarter of 2018, I have left the needle at the same point as fourth quarter of last year. Price growth remains strong even as sales activity slowed. All things being equal, 2018 is setting itself up to be another very good year for sellers but, unfortunately, not for buyers who will still see stiff competition for the limited number of available homes for sale.

Uncategorized April 23, 2018

Seattle Storm Schedule

Uncategorized April 17, 2018

2018 Buying Guide

Uncategorized April 17, 2018

2018 Selling Guide

Uncategorized February 23, 2018

836 West Etruria

Uncategorized February 21, 2018

Gig Harbor

 

SERENITY AND PEACEFULNESS ON
POINT EVANS WATERFRONT IN GIG HARBOR

4601 Holly Lane N.W.
Offered at $1,075,000

MLS #1243683

Bedrooms: 3,  Bathroms: 1, 3/4, 1/2,
Office, Den off Kitchen, Bonus Room

Seattleites… is the traffic, the lack of parking, the crime, the lack of privacy and peacefulness all driving you nuts?
Have you considered Gig Harbor?  Just across the Narrows Bridge from Tacoma is a wonderful community with all necessary amenities.  The heart of this town is around the marina, with affordable moorage, plenty of great restaurants and the sweetest, small businesses.
Just look what you can get for slightly over a million!  A very private, 3 bedroom home with a den off the kitchen, office and bonus room and 2 car garage. All of this on a high bank waterfront lot with vistas to die for and an expansive deck and hot tub to enjoy them from!
Privacy and serenity now!

Open Houses
Saturday, February 24th from 11-2
Sunday, February 25th from 12-3

Want a private tour?
Contact my Co Listing Agent in Gig Harbor
Sandy Jones 253-514-1988
Windermere Gig Harbor Realty

Have questions?
Contact me!

Uncategorized January 31, 2018

Spring Gardening Tips

Uncategorized January 30, 2018

Q4 Gardner Report